因經濟低迷巴西努力擴大(dà)國内天然氣市場

　　中(zhōng)國石化新聞網訊 據《石油世界期刊》10月12日裏約熱内盧報道，巴西希望開(kāi)發大(dà)型天然氣消費(fèi)國，以穩定其即将開(kāi)放(fàng)的天然氣市場，但這一(yī)努力受到市場開(kāi)放(fàng)進程和經濟增長緩慢(màn)等問題的挑戰。

　　巴西的天然氣需求嚴重依賴工(gōng)業消費(fèi)，該國近一(yī)半的需求來自工(gōng)業，因爲該國用于取暖的天然氣有限。但巴西礦業和能源部表示，工(gōng)業天然氣需求充其量也一(yī)直停滞不前，從2011-2018年的4000萬至4300萬立方米/天不等，到2019年下(xià)降到3700萬立方米/天，到新冠疫情期間的3600萬立方米/天。工(gōng)業用戶在整體(tǐ)經濟中(zhōng)所占比例也有所下(xià)降，從1985年占GDP的48%下(xià)降到2019年的21%。

　　大(dà)型能源和天然氣消費(fèi)者寄予厚望，該國于 1 月 1 日開(kāi)放(fàng)的天然氣市場将加劇供應競争并最終降低價格，從而增加天然氣需求。但根據巴西全國工(gōng)業聯合會(CNI)最近的一(yī)項研究，建立監管和發展市場流動性可能需要一(yī)些時間。在新市場的第一(yī)階段，随着巴西石油公司從壟斷供應商(shāng)的地位下(xià)降，價格實際上可能會上漲。

　　OfSeas咨詢公司分(fēn)析師安東尼奧·蘇紮（Antonio Souza）表示，由于該國的高成本，需要相關數量天然氣的行業，甚至可能轉向天然氣的行業，現在還沒有轉。

　　考慮到巴西相對不溫不火(huǒ)的經濟增長率，讓大(dà)型能源消費(fèi)商(shāng)轉變能源使用方式就更加困難了。根據巴西地理與統計研究所（institute of geography and statistics IBGE）的數據，截至9月30日的12個月内，巴西國内生(shēng)産總值增長了1.8%，低于國際貨币基金組織（IMF）預測的發展中(zhōng)經濟體(tǐ)平均6.3%，或世界銀行預測的5.2%。在此之前，2018年和2019年的增速分(fēn)别爲1.8%和1.1%，落後于其他類似發展水平的國家。

　　大(dà)量國内天然氣

　　巴西工(gōng)業可利用的國内天然氣并不短缺。巴西擁有大(dà)型氣田，如由Equinor在裏約熱内盧州近海的鹽前坎波斯盆地運營的Pãde Açcar氣田，預計到2026年底，該氣田的日産量将達到1600萬立方米。EPE估計，到2030年，巴西天然氣日産量将達到1.47億立方米，高于8月份的5500萬立方米。

　　但到2027年，該國将需要擴大(dà)現有海上1号和2号天然氣管道的容量，即使3号管道将在2022年投入使用。除非有大(dà)客戶願意爲這一(yī)産能簽訂長期合同，否則不會進行重大(dà)管道擴建。

　　一(yī)位了解油氣生(shēng)産行業的消息人士告訴Argus稱，巴西天然氣市場仍然很小(xiǎo)。可能很難爲這麽多天然氣找到買家。在巴西尋找主要消費(fèi)者是一(yī)件複雜(zá)的事情，天然氣生(shēng)産商(shāng)依賴的消費(fèi)者幾乎沒有增長和穩定的消費(fèi)。

　　燃氣熱發電機是巴西第二大(dà)天然氣消費(fèi)群體(tǐ)，被視爲另一(yī)個主要的長期客戶。巴西電力市場大(dà)多處于壟斷狀态，85%的消費(fèi)者與當地配電公司挂鈎，這些公司通過受監管的政府拍賣獲得電力。

　　但巴西對火(huǒ)力發電的需求波動很大(dà)。水電是主要能源，裝機容量爲62%，風能和太陽能的價格正在下(xià)降。鑒于巴西電網的互聯性，除了目前運營的沿海市場之外(wài)，其他州不太可能建設新的燃氣發電廠。

　　以流通企業協會(Abegás)爲中(zhōng)心，公共汽車(chē)和卡車(chē)市場也有可能成爲天然氣市場。Abegás戰略和市場總監Marcelo Mendonça表示，部分(fēn)柴油卡車(chē)市場可能會被天然氣卡車(chē)取代，潛在消費(fèi)量爲3000萬立方米/天。他表示，沼氣也可以滿足這一(yī)需求，爲買家提供綠色選擇。

　　根據米納斯吉拉斯州天然氣經銷商(shāng)Gasmig的數據，天然氣是重型車(chē)輛最便宜的燃料選擇，成本爲0.32蘭特/公裏，而乙醇和汽油的成本分(fēn)别爲0.65蘭特/公裏和0.63蘭特/公裏。

　　巴西能源研究辦公室（Energy Research Office）将于12月發布一(yī)項研究，重點是找到這些主要消費(fèi)者。

　　郝芬 譯自 《能源世界網》

　　原文如下(xià)：

　　Brazil struggles expanding gas market of domestic consumers amid downturn

　　Brazil wants to develop large natural gas consumers to anchor its soon-to-be liberalized gas market, but the effort is challenged by questions about the market-opening process and slow economic growth.

　　Natural gas demand in Brazil is heavily dependent on industrial consumption, with almost half of the country's demand coming from industry, as gas for heating is limited in the country. But industrial natural gas demand has been stagnant at best, ranging between about 40mn-43mn m³/d from 2011-2018 before falling to 37mn m³/d in 2019 and then to 36mn last year during the Covid-19 pandemic, according to Brazil's Ministry of Mines and Energy. Industrial users have also become a smaller part of the overall economy, dropping from 48pc of GDP in 1985 to 21pc in 2019.

　　Large energy and gas consumers have high hopes that the country's natural gas market opening on 1 January will increase competition for supply and eventually lower prices, increasing gas demand. But it may take some time to establish regulations and develop market liquidity, according to a recent Brazilian National Confederation of Industry (CNI) study. Prices may actually increase at the first stages of the new market as Petrobras' role shrinks from that of monopoly supplier.

　　"The industries that demand relevant volumes of natural gas and even industries that could shift to gas now are not shifting due to the high costs in the country," said Antonio Souza, an analyst with OfSeas consultancy.

　　Getting large energy users to make the switch is even harder, given Brazil's relatively tepid growth rate. Brazilian GDP grew 1.8pc in the 12 months ending 30 September according to Brazil's institute of geography and statistics IBGE, below the 6.3pc average projected for developing economies by the International Monetary Fund, or the World Bank's Latin America outlook of 5.2pc. This follows a sluggish 1.8pc growth in 2018 and 1.1pc in 2019, lagging behind other countries with similar levels of development.

　　Plenty of domestic gas

　　There is no shortage of domestic natural gas for Brazilian industry to tap. Brazil has large gas fields, such as Pão de Açúcar, operated by Equinor in the pre-salt Campos basin offshore Rio de Janeiro state, which is expected to produce 16mn m³/d by end of 2026. EPE estimates Brazilian gas production will reach 147mn m³/d by 2030, up from 55mn m³/d in August.

　　But by 2027 the country will need expanded pipeline capacity beyond existing gas pipelines Route 1 and 2 from the offshore, even with pipeline Route 3 operational by 2022. Significant pipeline expansions will not be built unless there are large customers willing to sign long term contracts for that capacity.

　　"The Brazilian gas market is still small. It may be difficult to find buyers for this much gas," a source with knowledge of the oil and gas production industry told Argus. "Finding anchor consumers in Brazil is a complicated matter, and gas producers depend on consumers with little ramp-up and steady consumption."

　　Gas-fired thermal generators, the second largest gas consumer group in Brazil, are being considered as another major long term customer. The Brazilian power market is mostly captive, with 85pc of consumers tied to local distribution companies that get their power through regulated government auctions.

　　But demand for thermal power generation in Brazil fluctuates. Hydropower is the dominant source with a 62pc installed capacity, and prices for wind and solar power are dropping. Given the interconnected nature of Brazil's power grid, new gas-fired power plants are unlikely to be built in states other than the coastal markets where they currently operate.

　　The bus and truck market is also being considered as a possible gas market, with distribution company association Abegás leading that effort. Some of the diesel truck market could be replaced by natural gas-fueled trucks, with a potential consumption of 30mn m³/d, Abegás strategy and market director Marcelo Mendonça said. That demand could also be met by biogas, providing buyers with a green option, he said.

　　Natural gas is the cheapest fuel option for heavy vehicles according to Minas Gerais state gas distributor Gasmig, costing R0.32/km, versus R0.65/km for ethanol and R0.63/km for gasoline.

　　Finding these anchor consumers is the focus of a study by Brazil's Energy Research Office, to-be released in December.

來源：中(zhōng)國石化新聞網